Posted by Brandon Jarvis
Larry Sabato and his Crystal Ball at UVA’s Center for Politics updated their predictions for the November 6th elections. Leslie Cockburn and Denver Riggleman are locked in a tight race in the typically rural-red district. However, multiple polls show a dead heat, and Sabato is now predicting the same thing.
“VA-5 is not a district that one might think would elect a Democrat under normal circumstances: The president won it by 11 points in 2016, and former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie (R) carried it by about nine points while losing statewide by about the same margin. And yet the race appears very close: a New York Times/Siena College poll showed it basically tied. National Democrats and Republicans grumble about their respective candidates in the race: author Leslie Cockburn (D) may be too liberal for the district, and veteran and businessman Denver Riggleman (R) may be too eccentric (readers may remember a story about him involving Bigfoot). And yet, one of them has to win, but who? We’re moving VA-5 from Leans Republican to Toss-up for now.”
Sabato and his team did have some bad news for Virginia Democrats when he moved the Virginia Beach district race from “Toss-Up” to “Leans-Republican”.
“Balancing out this change in Virginia is moving Hampton Roads Rep. Scott Taylor (R, VA-2) from Toss-up to Leans Republican. He has led a few recent polls in his race against former Navy commander Elaine Luria (D) and, at the moment, probably is the best-positioned of three vulnerable Republican House incumbents in the state. Rep. Barbara Comstock (R, VA-10) remains an underdog in Northern Virginia, while Rep. Dave Brat (R, VA-7) is locked in a Toss-up race in suburban Richmond/Central Virginia.”
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